n1530link

MATH1530 RESOURCE PAGE

http://math.etsu.edu/1530
Information you will find in this Web page:

The basics:

General information about the course including grading and attendance policy
List of places where you can get help with this course
Instructions to use of calculator
Links to pages of individual instructors
Material for each Chapter
Also:
Links to applets collections
Links to reference on-line material
Information about careers in Statistics
'Against All Odds ' videos

For instructors: links to Journals on the teaching of Statistics and other sources of data sets in the Web

Old final exams:

Final Exam from the Fall 2009 Solution

Final Exam from the Spring 2010 Solution

Final Exam from the Fall 2010 Solution

Final Exam from the Spring 2011 Solution

Final Exam from the Fall 2011 Solution

Final Exam from the Spring 2012 Solution

cave1

The STAT CAVE at ETSU -

Created with a grant from the National Science Foundation
(NSF-DUE 0126682) and ETSU (TAF) funds

STUDY GUIDE FOR FALL 2012 FINAL EXAM

· Information for each chapter

o List of recommended problems

o Labs and data sets to be used in class, assignments or for individual study for each chapter

o Links to web pages or data sets of applications of Statistics in the real world

o Worksheets that can be used without computers for activities in the classroom or for review.

Material for each Chapter

Links to on-line resources:

Collections of Applets References for students & instructors
Other Data sources Information about careers in STATS

GENERAL INFORMATION
Course Goal: To develop a basic understanding of probability and statistics and how they relate to the world around us.

FINAL EXAM IN THE FALL SEMESTER 2012 will follow the regular exam schedule.
(See more information about grading and attendance policy below)

TEXTBOOK for Fall Semester 2012:
Moore, D.S. (2010) Essential Statistics. 1st edition.

Software: Most sections will use MINITAB in class. Minitab is available in all the computer labs at ETSU.

Note. Students who acquired the 'bundle' have on addition to the textbook and study guide a student version of Minitab. There are other options available to acquire or rent Minitab for students that want to have it at home but this is not required, students will find Minitab in all the computers on Campus under 'Statistical Software.’

Calculator (Instructions prepared by C. Robe) can be found in
Requirements of the calculator vary with instructor. For those sections that require the Sharp Calculator,
Instructions for the Sharp Calculator for mean, standard deviation

Instructions to use the Sharp Calculator for regression and correlation

For students who already have a TI-83 calculator:
Instructions for Texas Instrument calculator: mean and variance
regression and Correlation

DATA SETS The data sets mentioned in the textbook are in the CD-Rom that comes with the book. Data sets from sources other than the textbook are accessible through this Web page.

FORMULA SHEET
The formula sheet and tables to be used on the final exam will be the card that comes with the text book. Here there is also a page with the main formulas.

Where to get help with this course?

1) Your instructor (check your instructor's office hours in the Syllabus for your section)

2) Math Lab:

Location: 123 Sherrod Library CFAA
Hours: 1 hour after library opens to 1 hour before library closes.

Center for Academic Achievement (CFAA)

Provides free individual, group, and online tutoring.

Website: http://www.etsu.edu/uged/cfaa/default.aspx

Phone: 423-439-7111

Need to make an appointment.

3) Free CFAA Group Tutoring:

Location: In the Sherrod Library (Behind Einstein's)

Hours: Mondays 7:00-9:00 pm and Wednesdays & Thursdays, 2:45-4:45 pm

Check: elearn.etsu.edu & click “TUTR-STAT-001-Probability & Statistics Tutoring” for exceptions and additional resources.

If “TUTR-STAT-001-Probability & Statistics Tutoring” does not appear under ADMN, call 439-4748 to enroll.

Your tutor is Alan Karp (zamk3@goldmail.etsu.edu)

4) Student Support Services, NURSE Center, Athletics, Disability Services, and others offer tutoring services. Check with them to see if you qualify.

Your success in this course depends on the time in the course. We recommend:

Study and read before attending the lectures. Keep up with the course.
Devote a little Time to studying statistics each day, rather than a large amount once a week.
Take an Active role in learning. Come to class and participate.
Tutor each other. If you feel that you are lost help is out there; see your instructor/tutor early. Don't wait until the last minute.

GRADING AND ATTENDANCE POLICY

DEPARTMENTAL FINAL EXAMINATION REQUIREMENT FOR MATH 1530:

A comprehensive departmental final examination will be administered in MATH 1530 (Probability & Statistics).
For the Fall Semester 2012 the exam will be held during the regular final exam schedule.
The room will be announced by your Instructor during dead week.
Important: each student must have a current, official ETSU ID card to take final exam.
The Final Examination will count 20% of each student’s grade. For extremely low scores on the Final Examination (less than 80 points (or less than 40%) of the maximum of 200 points), the student will be assigned a semester grade of F.
The purposes of this program are to increase learning, enhance quality control and minimize grade disparity among instructors.

GRADING FOR THE COURSE: The grade will be based on a possible 1000 points (200 from the Final Examination, 100 from Capstone Project, 50 from practice quizzes and 650 determined by the instructor). The scale follows:

A	950 – 1000	C+	780 – 799
A-	900 – 949	C	720 – 779
B+	880 – 899	C-	700 – 719
B	820 – 879	D+	650 – 699
B-	800 – 819	D	600 – 649
F Total less than 600 or for academic misconduct or an extremely low grade (less than 80) on the final examination.

PRACTICE QUIZZES: There are 16 chapter quizzes in Desire2Learn (D2L). There is no time commitment and unlimited attempts to complete these quizzes but you must get at least 75% of the questions correct on a chapter quiz to get full credit (3 points) on that quiz. You will receive 2 points for attempting all quizzes. All quizzes must be taken one hour prior to the final exam.

BONUS POINTS FOR GOOD ATTENDANCE (after the first week of classes): You may receive a bonus for good attendance (we don’t count absences occurring during the first week of the semester). An absence can only be “excused” by presenting Instructor with an official ETSU Class Absence Authorization For Student Participation In A University-Sponsored Activity prior to the occurrence of the absence. No other types of absences will be excused even if you have an impeccable reason for not being in class. We interpret the number of absences recorded for a student as an indication of the amount of lecture material they have missed during the semester, not as a critical judgment of that student’s character, motivation and honesty. Bonus points will be awarded in the following manner:

5 absences or more Zero bonus points

4 absences 10 bonus points

3 absences 20 bonus points

2 absences 30 bonus points

1 absence 40 bonus points

0 absences 50 bonus points

DEPARTMENTAL ATTENDANCE REQUIREMENTS:
(approved by department vote on February 28, 1994; revised July 1999*)
The Department of Mathematics strongly advises students to attend all mathematics classes when physically able. Because there is a positive correlation between attendance and student success in mathematics, the following attendance guidelines will be used in all mathematics courses. Regardless of the reasons for the absences, should a student exceed the following limits, the instructor has the authority to assign a grade of FN or F; this policy takes precedence over the grade assignment policy for MATH 1710 and MATH 1530:
7 absences for classes scheduled for MWF.
5 absences for classes scheduled for TR or MW classes or
any other 2 day/night classes.
3 absences for classes scheduled for one evening per week.
9 absences for all daytime sections of 4-hour classes.
* FOR SUMMER COURSES: 5 absences for classes scheduled MTWXF.

LINKS TO INDIVIDUAL INSTRUCTORS

Web Pages

Corlis Robe
Susan Hosler

DESIRE2LEARN CONNECTION

MATERIAL CHAPTER BY CHAPTER

CHAPTER 1

Picture Distributions with Graphs

SKILLS &
KNOWLEDGE
in Chapter 1
skills

Chapter 1. After reading this chapter make sure you can:

Identify individuals and variables in a given story. (See Who? How many? What? Why? questions on page 4)
Distinguish between Categorical and Quantitative variables
Based on the nature of the variable, be able to decide which graph is appropriate for a given data set:

· Histograms and Stemplots (Stem-and-Leaf display)?

· Bar and/or Pie Charts?

· Time Plots?

Understand what a histogram or stemplot tells you about the behavior of the variable. What is a bimodal or a skewed left or skewed right distribution telling you?

HOMEWORK Chapter 1

We recommend that you practice with exercises: 1,3-7,9,10,12-18,19,20,22,23,26,28,29,30,34,35

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded.

IN THE LAB
Chapter 1

Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for graphing and displaying data

1) Lab 'Drugs' :
The purpose of this lab is to get familiar with data files and do basic graphs for categorical and quantitative variables
data file: drugsurv.mtw (data from drug and alcohol survey in a state for the Midwest)
(variables in this data set are: gender, years of education, smoking status, having tried marijuana and alcohol dependency)
A more simple version of that lab that can be used the first day in the lab to introduce students to the use of Minitab can be found in : plabdrugs.doc

2) Work 1.33, 1.34, 1.44 from the book

3) Explore and discuss the distribution of the variables in one or more of these data files

a) surveys02.mtw (Has categorical and quantitative variables: gender, age, number of siblings etc. of students in a section of Math 1530)

b) Pulse rates of 210 students of a MATH 1530 course pulserat.mtw pulserat.sav (Interpret the shape, what pulse rates are more common? which ones are less frequent?)

c) Age at time of death, sample of 135 graves from Greenhill cemetery Laramie, WYO, data include people who died in the period 1860-1998) (Why does the distribution of age at time of death looks bimodal? Get separate graphs for those who died before and after 1950. ) Greenhill.mtw

d) Unemployment in Tennessee. This data set contains the monthly unemployment rate in Tennessee from January 1978 to April 1999. TennUnEm.mtw Obtain a histogram and interpret it. Obtain a time plot and interpret it.

4) Using applets from the WWW. The applet (from Rice University) at http://www.ruf.rice.edu/%7Elane/stat_sim/histogram/index.htm
allows you to explore how a interval width affects the shape of the histogram

In the real world Chapter 1

Statistics is a useful tool to explore the real world.

Here are some data files with real data. Think of the context of the data, get acquainted with the variables and identify the type of each variable.
1) SAT related variables for 50 States and DC (Moore's Basic Practice of Statistics) Minitab: SAT.mtw SPSS: SAT.sav

2) Demographic and economic data from for 97 countries (from Rouncefield)

Rouncefield, M. (1995) The Statistics of Poverty and Inequality . Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.2 (1995)

(data source : United Nations in 1990). (Variables in this data file are:
(birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate, life expectancy for males and females, gross national product)
Minitab: poverty.mtw SPSS: poverty.sav

3) Real data from the USA: Census Bureau Web site, unemployment data Bureau of Labor Statistics, The University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center

Related readings
for instructors

Ideas on how to use a data set with demographic and economic variables for 97 countries produced by the United Nations:
Rouncefield, M. (1995) The Statistics of Poverty and Inequality. Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.2 (1995)

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CHAPTER 3

Normal Distribution

Skills & Knowledge
in Chapter 3

After studying this chapter, you should:

know what is a density curve and what is the total area under it
be able to sketch the density curve given the mean and standard deviation of a normal distribution
apply the 68-95-99.7 rule
be able to calculate z-scores ('standardization')
find the area (proportions & percentiles) to the left or right of a given value of x or z .
given an area (to the left or the right) under the normal curve, find the value of z (and x)
use your knowledge of the normal distribution to solve word problems (example: exercises 3.20-3.22)

HOMEWORK
for Chapter 3

We recommend that you practice with exercises: 3.1-3.6, 3.8-3.10, 3.12, 3.14, 3.15-3.21, 3.22, 3.23, 3.26, 3.31-3.33, 3.35, 3.37, 3.38, 3.40, 3.50
Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded.

In the Classroom
Chapter 3

These activities do not require the use of computers.
1) A worksheet to introduce the idea of standardization
2) Exercises to practice the use of the normal table and problems related to the normal distribution

For Instructors: standnorm.gif a file with the graph of the normal distribution that can be used when preparing material on this topic

IN THE LAB
Chapter 3

Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE about the Normal distribution
1) Lab Normal Given a value finding an area, given an area finding a value, checking for normality (pulserat.mtw) & emulating normal data

2) Normal model and the Soda data. A lab to discuss if the normal model is appropriate for a given case, data file soda.mtw

3) Applets from different sources :
                 Applet to calculate areas under the normal curve   (U. Berkeley)
                 Applet to draw normal curves (input: mean and std) and calculate areas under the curve (Rossman-Chance collection)
                 Applet about normal approximation to histograms (U. Berkeley)

4) Exercises 3.51-3.53 use the Normal Curve Applet from Statistical Applets on the BPS4e CD.

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CHAPTERS 4 & 5

Scatter Plots, Correlation, Regression

Skills in Chapters 4 & 5	After studying these chapters, you should: know for what type of variables r can be calculated, its main properties and limitations, and how to interpret it be able to interpret an scatter plot and its relation with the value of r know how to interpret the value of the slope (don't forget the units), and the intercept (when interpretation is appropriate) understand the least square principle and know how to calculate (using computer or calculator) the estimated value of slope and intercept know what residuals are and be able to interpret residual plots know how to evaluate a model using R-square be familiar with the notion of outliers, influential data, lurking variable, extrapolation understand that association does not imply necessarily a cause-effect relationship be aware of the dangers of extrapolation and the possible existence of lurking variables.
HOMEWORK Chapters 4 & 5	We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: Chapter 4: 4.1-4.3, 4.5, 4.9, 4.11-4.18, 4.21-4.23, 4.26, 4.27, 4.29, 4.31-4.36 Chapter 5: 5.1, 5.3-5.8, 5.10, 5.12, 5.14, 5.15-5.24, 5.26, 5.27, 5.29, 5.31, 5.33, 5.35-5.39, 5.41 5.45, 5.46 Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded. In this note you can see the calculation of the correlation coefficient (r) step by step
IN THE LAB Chap. 4 & 5	Ideas that can be used in the Stat Cave for correlation and regression. 1) Lab Body Fat (correlation and regression) Which is better predictor of body fat; waist or weight? Uses the data file bodyfat.mtw 2) Lab Wine-Heart (correlation and regression) Are wine consumption and heart disease related? Uses the data file wineheart.mtw 3) LAB OldFaithful Correlation Are the length of eruption and the time until next eruption related? oldfaithful.mtw 4) LAB OldFaithful Regression Can we predict when the next eruption of Old Faithful will be? Data: oldfaithful.mtw 5) This is a very appropriate data set to discuss outliers in regression: Obtain the scatter plot, fit the regression equation with and without the observation for the USA and compare R-square for both models. Cigarette and lung cancer (Friedman et. al) cigaret.mtw cigarret.sav 6) LifeExpect.mtw (Cause-effect relationship?) 7) Using Applets in the WWW: a) Guessing the value of r from a scatter plot (University of Illinois) b) Rice U 'Regression by Eye' applet c) To discuss leverage and influential points: You place the points with the mouse where you want and the (U of Illinois) applet calculates r and the regression line You move the points, displays r, SSE and line Calpoly Linear Regression Applet You move one point, displays r and line West's Regression Applet d) Correlation and Regression Applet from A. Strader of Texas A & M University 8) Explore the Correlation and Regression Applet from (Statistical Applets) on the BPS4e CD.

In the classroom Chapters 4 & 5	1) Class summary to introduce correlation (step by step calculation) and regression intcorreg.doc 2) A summary of the ideas of outliers & influential points in regression using the famous cigarette & lung cancer example: outliers.doc This worksheet can be worked in the classroom, no computer is required 3) Are drinking wine and heart disease associated? A worksheet (wineheart.doc) based on a data set from Moore, D "The Basic Practice of Statistics" (Data file wineheart.mtw or wine-heart.sav )

In the real world

More Olympic files: data files with results from the 2004 Olympic games prepared by Susan Hosler.

It ain't over till it's (almost) over: OlymM20K_Walk.mtw
Which increment of the men's 20 km walk best predicts the amount of time required to finish the race? Walker's times at 2,4,6,8,10,12,15,16,18 and 20 Km. (hint: look at scatter plots, look at the squared correlation at 18 km and 20 km)

Readings for instructors

A Brief History of Regressio n

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CHAPTER 6
Review

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:

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CHAPTER 7
PRODUCING DATA: SAMPLING

Skills in
Chapter 8

After studying this chapter, you should:

distinguish between an experiment and a survey
know the difference between population and a sample
understand how bias can enter into samples or results
be familiar with the survey & sampling basic vocabulary including types of random sampling
know that individuals in the sample have to be randomly selected
be able to select a simple random sample from a sampling frame
know the consequences of incomplete/dated sampling frames and non-random sampling

HOMEWORK

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: 7.1-7.5, 7.7-7.9, 7.11-7.20, 7.22, 7.24, 7.27, 7.28 7.30-7.34, 7.36, 7.38, 7.41

The following exercises require the use of random number tables, applet, or other software: 8.9,8.11,8.12,8.36,8.44

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded.

14 multiple choice questions on experimental and observational studies hwsurexp.doc

IN THE LAB
in Chapter 8

Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for Surveys

1) A class summary on surveys to introduce the topic using internet and software (Minitab) resources surveys in lab
2) Short Lab on random sampling, uses the data set: agepop.mtw

3) Random selection Activity/Lab: Selecting things at random: from raffles to samples- Hats, dice, tables and computers
This lab introduces in a 'hands on way' random generation of numbers by different random mechanisms and the selection of random samples

4) Lab on Random Samples using the data set: agepop.mtw To learn how to select samples using the computer and to explore the ideas of sampling variability and sampling distributions

In the real world

To learn more about organizing surveys: ASA brochures on Surveys (detailed brochures on different aspects of surveys)

Two opposite examples of surveys:
National Geographic's Survey 2000 (large sample but not random, for whom are the results valid? )
The Gallup Poll (relatively small RANDOM sample, for whom are the results valid?) Give a look to the Gallup Poll of the week

More about the Census in the USA : CENSUS: main page and teacher's page

For links to more national surveys places

What went wrong? Literary Digest Survey

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CHAPTER 8
PRODUCING DATA: EXPERIMENTS

Skills in chapter 9			After studying this chapter, you should: distinguish between an experiment and an observational study be familiar with the basic vocabulary of experimental design Understand what constitutes a randomized comparative experiment be able to identify subjects, factors & treatments in a given story know the basic types of experimental designs (double blind, completely randomized, block, matched pairs, etcetera) know the basic principles of Experimental Design: Control , Randomize, Replication. Understand the meaning of statistical significance and when does it imply causation
HOMEWORK		We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: 9.1-9.4,9.9,9.10,9.12,9.13,9.16-9.26,9.36,9.39,9.41,9.45,9.47 The following exercises require the use of random number tables, applet, or other software: 9.5,9.29,9.32 Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded
In the classroom Chapter 9				These activities can be done in the classroom or assigned as homework, no computer is required 1) Activity on Experimental Design The vocabulary of experimental design and the principles of randomization, replication and control, as well as the strategy of blocking to control for sources of variability are reviewed in this activity using three cases. 2) 14 multiple choice questions on experimental and observational studies hwsurexp.doc
IN THE LAB Chapter 9	Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for experiments Lab on Experimental design This Lab focuses on the application of the Randomization principle to select which individuals will be assigned to each treatment and in which order the experiment will be conducted; but other issues involved in designing experiments are also reviewed.

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CHAPTER 10
INTRODUCING PROBABILITY

Skills in
Chapter 10

After studying this chapter, you should:

know what a random phenomenon or a random experiment are
know that chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run but has a regular and predictable pattern in the long run.
be familiar with the basic probability vocabulary (sample space, outcomes, event,
have an intuitive idea of probability (in the long run....) and a more formal idea through the basic rules of probability
be able to solve simple probability problems
know what a random variable and a probability distribution are
be able to interpret and use the information given in a simple probability table for one variable
be able to answer simple probability questions based on the information given in a two-way table
know what independent and mutually events are
have an idea of what a probability model is
know how to find the probability of an event for the normal probability model

HOMEWORK

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: 10.4,10.5,10.8-10.13,10.15-10.17,10.19-10.28,10.31,10.39,10.40,10.43,10.44,10.46,10.49,10.51,10.53

The following exercises require the use of an applet or other software: 10.3b,10.35,10.55
Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

IN THE LAB
in Chapter 10

Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for probability
Want to (virtually) flip a coin?
1) Using applets from the CD. Explore the Probability Applet from (Statistical Applets) on the BPS4e CD. This applet simulates flipping a coin and keeps track of heads and tails.

2) Using applets in the WWW. You will also find generators of random numbers in http://www.random.org

Probability as relative frequency in the long run: Go to http://www.random.org and flip the coin 50 times. Keep track of the number of heads that you get. Based on this experience, what is your estimate for the probability of heads for that coin? (50 realizations of the random experiment of flipping a coin is NOT really the 'long run'). Each student can report how many head he/she got in his/her 50 trials and we can come up with another estimate of the probability.

http://www.etsu.edu/math/seier/agepop.mtw

In the Classroom
Chapter 10

1) Class summary to introduce the basic of probabilities including random variable intprobrv.doc

2) This is a class summary to introduce, via examples, probability related topics such as :
Venn Diagrams, calculating conditional & marginal probabilities from two-way tables, false positives and false negatives in medical tests, the birthday problem. moreprobability.doc

These activities can be done in the classroom and do not require the use of computers

3) Introducing the idea of random variable

4) False positives in the ELIZA test for Aids

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CHAPTER 11
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS

Skills in Chapter 11			After studying this chapter, you should: be able to distinguish between parameter and statistic in a given story know what the sampling distribution of an statistic (for example, the sample mean) is have a basic understanding of the meaning of the law of large numbers have a basic understanding of the meaning of the central limit theorem and know how to apply it to problems of the type 'what is the probability that the sample mean takes a value greater (or lower) than some value. understand the relationship between sample size and the variability of the sample mean know what the distribution of the sample mean is for the two cases: x is normal & we don't know if x is normal be able to solve problems of the type: what is the probability that the sample mean takes a value greater (or lower) than.........?
Homework			We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: 11.1-11.3,11.5,11.7-11.13,11.17-11.24,11.26,11.31-11.34,11.36,11.38,11.41,11.42. The following exercises require the use of random number tables, applet, or other software: 11.6,11.29,11.44 Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded
IN THE LAB Chapter 11		Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for sampling distribution 1) A 'hands on' introduction to sampling distributions intsamdist.doc it uses the worksheet sampmeanspop.mtw and applets from the web 2) A Lab to introduce step by step the ideas related to sampling distribution. The file with the population to be used in this lab is in agesmoke.mtw The program to do the simulations in the Lab samdismp.mtb 3) APPLETS in the WWW a) Rice University Lab to do simulations and observe the distribution of the sample mean b) Applet from U. Berkeley to understand the Law of Large Numbers c) An applet from the Rossman & Chance collection that randomly selects words from the Gettysburg address and depicts the sampling distribution of a categorical (noun or not noun) and a quantitative (length of word) variable http://statweb.calpoly.edu/chance/applets/GettysburgSample/GettysburgSample.html 4) Using APPLETS in the CD. Explore the Law of Large Numbers Applet from (Statistical Applets) on the BPS4e CD This applet simulates rolling die/dice and could be used for the Law of Large Numbers http://statweb.calpoly.edu/chance/applets/GettysburgSample/GettysburgSample.html
In the classroom Chapter 11	A set of 10 multiple choice questions to review the topic of sampling distribution of a mean

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CHAPTER 12
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Skills in
Chapter 12

After studying this chapter, you should:

know what type of situations is that you can apply the binomial distribution to ('binomial setting')
be able to use the binomial table to answer simple binomial probability problems
know the binomial mean and standard deviation

In the classroom

These activities can be worked in the classroom, no computer is needed.

BINOMIAL TABLES n=2...9 n=10...20

1) List of additional problems on Binomial distribution

2) More problems on the application of probability models

HOMEWORK

Here is a one page introduction to the Binomial distribution XXXX
We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: 1,2,4,6,8,12,13,15-19,21,23,24,27-29,34

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

IN THE LAB
Chapter 12

Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for binomial distribution

1) How to create a with MINITAB using the frogs story: frogsbinomial.doc
This example prepares the ground for an easy introduction of the idea of test of hypothesis.

2) A set of 3 questions, applying binomial probabilities, that help us to understand that events considered 'rare' are not necessarily rare.

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CHAPTER 13
INTRODUCTION TO INFERENCE

Skills in
Chapter 13

After studying this chapter, you should:

know how to calculate and interpret confidence intervals for the population mean
have very clear the meaning of 'confidence'
understand how the width of the confidence interval and the 'margin of error' depend on sample size, variability and confidence
be able to find the appropriate sample size knowing the standard deviation of the population and given the desired confidence and margin of error
be aware that the 'margin of error' only accounts for the 'sampling error' (the fact that not all the element of the population are in the sample) , it does not account for errors in the design and implementation of the survey such as undercoverage or low response rate.

HOMEWORK

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: 1,2,4,5,7,9-11,14,20-29,31,33,37,38,40,41,44,46,50,51

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

In the classroom
Chapter 13

Class summary: An introduction to the ideas of inference using the frogs example. frogsBinomial.doc

A set of 10 multiple choice questions about test of hypothesis and confidence intervals for the mean. actinfmean.doc

IN THE LAB
Chapter 13

Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for confidence intervals

1) Using applets to understand the meaning of confidence
2) Using APPLETS in the CD. Explore the Confidence Interval Applet from (Statistical Applets) on the BPS4e CD The applet simulates the total number of samples and number that "hit" (i.e., confidence interval did contain µ).

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CHAPTER 14
THINKING ABOUT INFERENCE

SKILLS in
Chapters 13 & 14

After studying these chapters, you should:

be able to identify and write the null and alternative hypotheses in a given story
know how to perform a test of hypotheses about the population mean
be able to make a decision about the null hypothesis based on the p-value and to interpret the value of the p-value
be familiar with the basic vocabulary of hypothesis testing (one-sided & two-sided hypothesis, test statistic, p-value, statistical significant, significance level)
know the connection between a test of hypothesis and a confidence interval
be aware of the difference between statistical significance and practical significance

HOMEWORK
Chapters 13 & 14

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: 1-9,12-20,22,24,26,27,30,31,34,35

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

IN THE LAB chapter 14

Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for test of hypothesis

The new ducks story: Introduces the ideas of hypothesis testing, shows how to do it using the exact (binomial) and approximate (normal) method by hand and using Minitab. It covers also the material of Chapter 18

In the Classroom
in Chapter 14

A worksheet to introduce the ideas of testing hypothesis based on the binomial distribution
Test of Hypothesis (the ducks story)

A set of 10 multiple choice questions about test of hypothesis and confidence intervals for the mean: actinfmean.doc.

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CHAPTER 15

Part II Review

Review the topics from Chapters 8 to 14.

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises:

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CHAPTER 16

INFERENCE ABOUT THE POPULATION MEAN

Skills Chapter 16

After studying this chapter, you should:

have an idea of what is the t-distribution and its relationship to the normal distribution
the necessary conditions to apply the t-test and t-confidence interval
know what the standard error is
know how to perform and interpret the results of a one sample t-test
know to perform and interpret the results of matched pairs t-test
be able to calculate and interpret a t-confidence interval
be aware of the robustness of the t-procedures

HOMEWORK
Chapters 16

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: (When possible use Minitab to solve.) 1,2,6,7,10,13-17,19-21,27,31-33,39-41,43

In the Lab in Chapter 16

A Lab on inference for the mean based on 4 exercises from the book. It reviews test of hypothesis and confidence intervals for the population mean , both when we know sigma and when we don't know it (including matched pairs)
Lab inference
It uses the data files boneloss.mtw, redwine.mtw and genvsref.mtw

In the classroom
Chapter 16

CHAPTER 17
Two-Sample Problems#Top of the Document

CHAPTER 18
INFERENCE ABOUT A POPULATION PROPORTION

Skills in Chapter 18

gateio

HOMEWORK
Chapter 18

We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: 1-5,8,9,11-19,20,21,23,25-28,31,33,34,35,37

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

IN THE LAB
Chapter 18

1) The new ducks story: Introduces the ideas of hypothesis testing, shows how to do it using the exact and approximate method by hand and using Minitab.

2) Additional problems

In the classroom
Chapter 18

1) A worksheet to introduce the ideas of testing hypothesis (it also shows what to do in case the assumptions needed to use the normal model are not attained) Test of hypothesis (the ducks story) (Same as posted in Chapter 18.)

2) Examples of testing a population proportion: testing_proportion.pdf

3) A guide to review inference for proportions by solving exercises from the book rwinfp.doc

4) A set of 10 multiple choice questions to review confidence intervals and tests of hypotheses for proportions.

CHAPTER 20

Review

1. addit_test_ci_probs.pdf

2. A review Lab for all the chapters on testing hypothesis , it uses the data files sulfur.xls and power.xls (Excel files can be read from MINITAB)

#Top of the Document

CHAPTER 21

CHI-SQUARE TEST

Skills in Chapter 21

After studying this chapter, you should :

• Know how to produce a two way table from raw data for two categorical (or categorized) variables

• be able to get marginal and conditional distributions from a two way table

• feel comfortable interpreting 'row and column percentages' (conditional distributions) and compare groups based on that interpretation

• An association or comparison that holds for all of several groups can reverse direction when the data are combined to form a single group. This reversal is called Simpson's Paradox.

• know how to write the null and alternative hypotheses given a research question about independence

• know how the expected values are calculated in a test of independence and what they mean

• understand the formula of the chi-square statistic

• be able to fully interpret the results (Minitab output) of a chi-square test

HOMEWORK
Chapter 21

Here you will find an introduction to the Chisquare test chisq.doc
We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: (When possible use Minitab to solve.) 1,2,4-9,13,15-18,21-23,27,31,35,37-39

Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded

IN THE LAB
Chapter 21

Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for the chi-square test

1) Lab on test of independence with the drug survey example. Data are in drugsurv.mtw

2) Labchisq.doc is a lab that includes the goodness of fit test and the test of independence.

3) Use The Titanic data (Dawson): Produce two-way tables and Chi-square tests to find out if

a) gender made a difference in survival

b) class made a difference in survival

In the Classroom Chapter 21	No computer is needed. TESTS OF INDEPENDENCE & GOODNESS OF FIT A worksheet that includes presentation of the topic and computer output and shows how calculations are done by hand and asks for interpretations.
Readings for instructors	Robert J. MacG. Dawson (1995 The "Unusual Episode" Data Revisited Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.3 )

CHAPTER 6
Two-Way Tables

Skills in Chapter 6	After studying this chapter, you should: Know how to produce a two way table from raw data for two categorical (or categorized) variables be able to get marginal and conditional distributions from a two way table feel comfortable interpreting 'row and column percentages' (conditional distributions) and compare groups based on that interpretation An association or comparison that holds for all of several groups can reverse direction when the data are combined to form a single group. This reversal is called Simpson's Paradox.
HOMEWORK for Chap. 6	We recommend that you practice with the following exercises: 6.1-6.3,6.5, 6.7-6.18,6.24,6.28,6.30,6.31 Simpson's Paradox exercises: 6.7,6.8,6.30,6.31 Your instructor might assign specific homework to be graded.
In the Lab Chapter 6	Ideas that can be used in the STAT CAVE for two-way tables 1) LAB Drugs-Two Way. We work again with the file drugsurv.mtw (data from drug and alcohol survey in a state for the Midwest) now trying to compare females and males and to observe associations between variables. 2) You can produce your own two-way tables for gender or class and survival with the Titanic Data. Did the same percent of males and females survived? Did the same percent of women survive in the first class than in the third class? Minitab: Atitanic.mtw Titanic Data: Gender, class, and survival for the Titanic adult passengers (crew not included). 3) A study was conducted to see if there was an increased risk of contracting hepatitis C associated with having a tattoo. Tattoos (Source: Intro Stats by De Veax & Velleman 2004) 4) A large sample survey interviewed a random sample of young adults in 2000 and 2001. One questions asked was, “Where do you live now? That is, where do you stay most often?” Where do college-age young adults live? (Source: The Basic Practice of Statistics)
Readings for instructors	Robert J. MacG. Dawson (1995 The "Unusual Episode" Data Revisited Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.3 )

#Top of the Document

APPLETS & Others

U. Berkeley applets
Rice Virtual Lab in Statistics
Rossman Chance Applet Collection
University of Illinois applets
University of South Carolina applets

Random Numbers

REFERENCES

FOR STUDENTS:
'Against All Odds ' videos
A Glossary of Statistical Terms (U. Berkeley)
Rice University HyperText on-line

JOURNALS FOR INSTRUCTORS:

Journal of Statistical Education

Teaching Statistics

Statistics Education Research Journal

Chance (Index,

LINKS TO OTHER WEB PAGES FOR INSTRUCTORS

http://www.causeweb.org
http://ore.gen.umn.edu/artist/pilots/

DATA

Journal of Statisical Education Data Archive
Data and Story Library
Case studies from the Rice University Lab
Chance Data Sets
http://www.causeweb.org

CAREERS IN STATISTICS

careers in Statistics
American Statistical Association Web page

Active Stats
Active Stats is a multimedia instruction software, that came with the previous textbook.
It is intended for study at home and you might find it useful to study in an interactive way at your own pace. Among other features it has videos that you can activate by clicking on icons, and exercises that you can practice with.

If you own one, here
you will find hints on how to use it.

Installing ActiveStats :

Insert the CD-Rom that comes with the book in your computer
Have at hand the ActivStats Quick Start Card, you will need the number there
Use Windows explore to click on the Active Stats icon

The first time select New Student, enter your name, the folder in your computer where you want to keep track your results and enter the number when asked. Where 'no bundle' appears as option, use the arrow to scroll and select the option Moore who is the author of our textbook.

Now you can get familiar with Active Stats by going through the Introduction and section 2.1 Defining data.
Below, in the material for each chapter, you will find a reference to Active Stats.